Sardoba suv ombori siri nihoyat ochildi

Ushbu baʼlumotlar Sardoba suv ombori boʻyicha jinoyat tergov ishini boshlagan DXX ga asqotadi degan umiddaman.

Sardoba voqeasida gidrometeorologik faktorlar sababchi (mi?)
Sardoba suv omborida yuz bergan halokatning ilk kunidanoq suv ombori toʻgʻoni buzilishiga kuchli yomgʻir va shamol sabab boʻlgani maʼlum qilindi. Bu haqida davlatimizning asosiy axborot quroli boʻlmish, «Oʻzbekiston 24» telekanalidagi yangiliklar dasturida maʼlum qilindi.
Xoʻsh, kuchli shamol va yomgʻir suv ombori toʻgʻoni buzilishida sababchi boʻla oladimi? Ushbu vajni koʻrib chiqamiz. Falokatda gidrometeorologik faktorlar taʼsirini oʻrganish uchun birinchi navbatda meteorologik monitoring natijalarida olingan maʼlumotlarga tayanamiz. Suv omboriga eng yaqin boʻlgan meteorologik stantsiya bu — Yangiyer meteorologik kuzatuv stantsiyasidir. U suv omboridan 27 km uzoqlikda joylashgan. Gidrometeorologik maʼlumotlarni olish uchun Namangan Gidrometeorologiya boʻlimi rahbari Erkin Abdulaxatovga murojaat qilamiz:
30 aprel kechasi shamolning tezligi 12 m/s, 27 aprel kechasi (Voqeadan 3 sutka oldin) 17 m/s, voqea paytida shamol tezligi 2 m/s boʻlgan. Kuzatuvlar tarixida shamolning maksimal tezligi stantsiyada 36 m/s boʻlgan. Bu 2 m/s yoki bir kun oldingi 12 m/s suv ombor yuzasida toʻlqinlar hosil qilishi uchun vaj boʻlmas. Mayli, bu u darajada katta shamol tezligi boʻlmasa-da, 3 sutka oldin toʻlqinlarni hosil qilgan holat suv ombori dambasi devorlariga 3 sutkadan soʻng taʼsir koʻrsatadimi? Mantiq yoʻq. Men bilmayman, loyihada Uzgidrometdan maʼlumot olingan olinmaganligini, lekin shamol vaji oʻta telbalarcha aytilgan.
Yomgʻir… Bir sutka oldin va kechasi yomgʻir haqiqat koʻp yogʻgan. 45 mm. Bu 67,4 km² maydonga ega suv ombor yuzasiga bor yoʻgʻi 2,7 mln m³ suv tushganini anglatadi. Umumiy hajmi 900 mln m³ hajm suvni oʻziga sigʻdira oladigan suv ombor uchun bu qiymat(0,3%) qanday taʼsir etishi mumkin? Bu ham oʻzini 100% oqlamaydi.
Sardoba suv ombori suv olish sigʻimi 922 mln m³ boʻlib, suv ombor suv olish manbasi kanal hisoblanadi. Kanaldagi suvni doim jilovlasa, boshqarsa boʻladi. Bu suv ombor soy yoki sel oʻzani suvlaridan suv olmasligini inobatga olsak, qandaydir tashqi muhitdan suv oqimi(sel-suv toshqini) xavf tugʻdirmaydi. Suv omborning maydoni 60,7 km²ni tashkil etadi.
Yangiyer meteorologik kuzatuv stantsiyasining kuzatuv natijalarini keltirib oʻtamiz:
28 aprel stantsiyada maksimal 17 m/s tezlikda shamol esgan. Yogʻingarchilik kuzatilmagan.
29 aprel soat 08:00 dan 30 aprel soat 08:00 gacha kunduz va kechasi umumiy 45 mm yomgʻir yogʻgan.
30 aprel soat 08:00 dan 1 may soat 08:00 oraliqda kunduz va kechasi yogʻingarchilik kuzatilmagan. Shamol maksimal 8 m/s tezlikda esgan. Voqeadan oldin shamol tezligi 10 soat davomiylikda maksimal bor yoʻgʻi 2 m/s boʻlgan. Yangiyer kuzatuv stantsiyasi maʼlumotlaridan tashqari internet orqali boshqa alternativ maʼlumotlarni ham topish mumkin. Masalan, www.meteoblue.com. Ushbu sayt orqali voqea sodir boʻlgan yerdagi Gidrometeorologik maʼlumotlarni 26 aprel va 3 may oraligʻi uchun koʻrib chiqamiz. Saytdagi maʼlumotlardan koʻrishingiz mumkinki, 30 aprel kuni shamol tezligining maksimal qiymati 10 m/s soat 18:00 – 19:59 vaqt oraligʻida kuzatilgan. Voqea sodir boʻlgan vaqtda shamol faktori oʻta xavfsiz boʻlgan.
Meteorologiya, umuman qishloq-xalq xoʻjaligi, sanoat-qurilish sohalarida shamolning maksimal tezligi soniyasiga 15 metrdan yuqorilasa, xavfli meteorologik hodisa sanaladi. Lekin, u darajada katta talofatlar yuzaga kelmaydi. Bu kriteriya ihtiyoriy strategik obʼektlar doim tayyor turishi kerak. Agarda, shamol tezligi soniyasiga 24 metrdan kuchaysa, aviatsiyada uchqichlar parvozi vaqtincha bekor qilinadi. Shamol tezligi soniyasiga 30 metrdan yuqorilasa, oʻta xavfli meteorologik hodisa kuzatilib, bunda aniq qandaydir favqulodda holatlar yuzaga keladi.
Xulosa

1. Shamol tezligi kritik qiymatdan ancha past boʻlgan. Shamol vaji ishonchli emas.
2. 3 kun davomida yogʻgan yomgʻir miqdori suv ombori hajmining 0.3 % miqdorini tashkil qiladi. Bu qiymat toʻgʻonga taʼsir qiladigan bosimni sezilarli ravishda oshirmasligi kerak. Chunki inshootlarda mustahkamlik zaxirasi (zapas prochnosti) degan tushuncha bor. Odatda mustahkamlik zahrasi inshoot moʻljallangan qiymatdan 50 % miqdorida koʻp qilib olinadi. Aytaylik biror kichik koʻprikcha 1000 tonna yuk koʻtarishga moʻljallansa, uni mustahkamlik zaxirasini hisobga olib, 1500 tonna yukka moʻljallab qurishadi. Shunday boʻlsa-da, 1000 tonna yuk uchun ekspluatatsiya qilishadi. Shu sababli, agar suv omborining toʻgʻoni qurilishida barcha normalar bajarilgan boʻlsa, 0.3 % qoʻshimcha bosim falokatga olib kelmasligi kerak.

Rustam Ashurov, yosh fizik olim

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